Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(8:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model