Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 22 – Carolina Panthers 17

(3:39) 43-M.Hayball punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 36 for 10 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model