Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 22

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Jackson to NO 37 for 8 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 41-J.Windmon). PENALTY on NO-30-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.09 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model