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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 22 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model