4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP