Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to CAR 43, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.Blackshear to NO 43 for 14 yards (49-Z.Wood, 85-D.Holker). PENALTY on NO-6-W.Gay, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.74 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model