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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP