4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to LV 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-D.Turner to LV 33 for 24 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model