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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to CIN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 13 yards (45-T.Eichenberg, 50-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model