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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model