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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 87

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to CLE 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 44 for 5 yards (28-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth -0.20 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 87, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 45, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP