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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LAC 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.68 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model