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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end to CLE 42 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model