Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to CLE 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-J.Darden to CLE 22 for 11 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). LAC-87-S.Fehoko was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model