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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Davis to CLE 30 for 53 yards (39-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model