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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LAC 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model