Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

(5:59) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model