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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to LAC 4 for 2 yards (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.89 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model