4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.26 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model