4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model