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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP