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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 25
Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16
What Actually Happened
(1:25) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
The Three Options
GO
+2.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.41 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.00 EP
KICK
+1.17 EP
- 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
-0.10 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
