4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 15 for 1 yard (21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-22-K.Ringo at JAX 20. 22-K.Ringo to JAX 20 for no gain (56-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.12 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model