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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to JAX 29, Center-49-R.Lovato. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 4 yards (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model