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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram (33-C.DeJean, 55-B.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model