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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model