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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model