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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 1-J.Downs to IND 41 for 14 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -1.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model