4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 16-A.Dulin (2-S.Gilmore) [52-Ji.Ward].

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.28 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model