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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model