4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.05 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model