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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model