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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP