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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model