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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 9

Houston Texans 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model