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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 15

Houston Texans 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to NYJ 13 for 2 yards (56-Qi.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model