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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 48

New York Jets 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at HOU 31 for 17 yards (23-E.Murray). NYJ-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model