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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP