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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -1.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model