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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 75 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-29-J.Bernard-Converse.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model