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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 10

Denver Broncos 10 – Baltimore Ravens 41

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to BAL 1 for 9 yards (2-N.Wiggins; 29-A.Washington).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP