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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 41 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 18 yards (80-I.Likely).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.91 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model