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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 14

Denver Broncos 10 – Baltimore Ravens 41

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP