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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 38 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP