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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 86

Denver Broncos 10 – Baltimore Ravens 38

What Actually Happened

(:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BAL 40, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-T.Wallace to DEN 39 for 21 yards (45-N.Adkins, 9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model