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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 19

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:58) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model