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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.63 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model