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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 15

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model