4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model