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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model